Model Authority: Professor Madison Douglas

March 24, 2025

Permafrost is a major actor in the slow-motion disaster movie of pollution, climate change, and environmental degradation. It contains vast amounts of carbon. As our planet warms permafrost thaws, releasing greenhouse gases that enter a feedback loop which accelerates climate change. How bad is this feedback? We still don’t know. We still need to understand the different character and history of permafrost that makes it vulnerable to rapid thaw and erosion.

Geomorphology is the area within Earth Sciences that studies what is happening at or near the Earth’s surface, seeking to understand how physical, chemical, and biological processes form the terrain around us. Each landscape has stories to tell. “Geomorphology is the point where geology meets the human timescale,” says Assistant Professor Madison Douglas. She joined the UC Berkeley Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences in 2024, following an MIT postdoc. She has plans that will make the permafrost talk.

On the first day of class Douglas likes to do an icebreaker: Picture your favorite natural landscape. Raised in New England, she picks Walden Pond. Is Walden an undisturbed, natural landscape or does it have a human history? Most places that we post-industrial people encounter have already been reshaped by human activity. At Walden Pond it isn’t just the parking lot and walking trails – a history of logging coupled with warming temperatures have altered the vegetation, and the depth and contours of the pond and its water composition have been altered from what the retreating glacier left at the end of the last ice age. The climate and the geology made the hole but human actions have created the environment we experience today.

When Earth scientists go to gather data in the field, they aim to understand geomorphological features well enough to predict how they’ll behave in a timeframe that users will value. When will we need to dredge the delta so ships can go into port? When and where do landslides occur in the mountains of California? How can we design levees and dams to provide cheap, renewable hydropower without destroying fish habitats? Models that analyze how water and sediment move across landscapes can answer these questions.

Photo credit: Brittany Hosea-Small

Unfortunately, fully modeling water and sediment transport in rivers remains out-of-reach for even the most powerful computers, forcing us to rely on shorthand rules from observations of landscapes that are usually far from pristine. There is also a significant geographical bias, where the models and numbers in the textbooks match landscapes where researchers live. Professor Douglas is noticing that those equations don’t work for the rivers in permafrost regions, where the ground is frozen year-round, and the human presence has been so light that the geological forces still rule. “My role is to come up with models” for the Arctic that are accurate and useful for policymakers, stakeholders, tribes, and communities to make informed decisions about the lands that they oversee. She is helping develop the blossoming field of quantitative geology. “It’s a young field,” she says. “Plate tectonics is newer than quantum mechanics!” With basic questions still unanswered, geomorphology attracts investigators with broad curiosity who also have a sharp eye for careful data collection.

Professor Douglas’s own curious eye was directed towards nature early on. Her parents were avid climbers and campers, as well as scientists and engineers. When she told her PhD mom she wanted to be a scientist and her mom replied that it would be a lot of research and ramen dinners, Douglas thought “Sounds good to me.” Young Madison realized studying science and spending time outdoors wasn’t an either/or decision during a high school field trip to Maine. Geology equals physics plus nature! During a busy undergrad at MIT (fencing, flute, study abroad) she became enthralled with geomorphology thanks to an EAPS professor who is one of our alumni, Taylor Perron (PhD ’06). He was her first tie to the academic family led by Bill Dietrich. Bill is the latest member of the legacy of geomorphology research at Cal, extending back to Luna Leopold, who wrote the textbook on rivers, and Hans Albert Einstein, who developed foundational sediment transport predictions.  A year studying erosion on the Hawaiian Islands with the U.S. Geological Survey removed any small doubts about her desire to pursue geomorphology: it was the science, not the lectern, that she wanted. At Caltech for graduate school, she joined the lab of Michael Lamb (PhD ’08). He turned Douglas on to arctic rivers and sediment transport and provided exceptional mentoring on the managerial aspects of a career in academia. As a new member of our faculty, Douglas is thrilled to carry on the transmission of geomorphological wisdom and institutional know-how to her own students as they push the science of permafrost landscapes forward. Bill Dietrich continues to model a career to “take science very seriously but don’t take yourself too seriously.” Another great part of joining the Berkeley faculty? Douglas’s eyes light up when she says, “On my first day here I had tea with Walter Alvarez!”

Our planet is changing over human timescales. Natural processes and human activity rapidly change landscapes, so that the maps we use to navigate may not be accurate for our children and grandchildren. Madison Douglas seeks to improve the accuracy of the models that tell ushow quickly Arctic permafrost is thawing and how erosion and floods threaten water quality and infrastructure across the US to put us on surer footing. Working together with her students and collaborators across Cal, she aims to change this slow-motion disaster movie into a tale of challenges met, and surmounted.