Model Authority: Professor Madison Douglas

March 24, 2025

Permafrost is a major actor in the slow-motion disaster movie that we are all trapped inside. It contains vast amounts of carbon. As our planet warms permafrost thaws, releasing greenhouse gases that enter a feedback loop which accelerates climate change. How bad is that? Literally—quantify the danger so we can decide how to respond. We need to dig into the character of permafrost and learn its desires and habits and upbringing, understand what causes it to turn to the dark side. As the saying goes, keep your friends close and your enemies closer. 

Geomorphology is the area within Earth Sciences that looks at what is happening at or near the Earth’s surface, how physical, chemical, and biological processes form the terrain around us. The landscape has stories to tell. “Geomorphology is the point where geology meets the human timescale,” says Assistant Professor Madison Douglas. She joined the UC Berkeley Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences in 2024, fresh out of the oven of an MIT postdoc. She has plans that will make the permafrost talk. 

On the first day of class Douglas likes to do an icebreaker: Picture your favorite natural landscape. Raised in New England, she will pick Walden Pond. Is that place really natural or does it have a human history? Most places that we post-industrial people encounter have already been reshaped by human activity. At Walden Pond it isn’t just the parking lot and gift shop and trail maintenance – concentrated human presence has altered the runoff and compacted the soils such that different flora and fauna thrive, and the depth and contours of the pond and the composition of the water has been altered from what the retreating glacier left at the end of the last ice age. The climate and the geology made the hole but in a very real sense it was human action that filled it in as we see it now.

When earth scientists go to gather data in the field, they aim to understand geomorphological features well enough to predict how they’ll behave in a timeframe that users will value. When will we need to dredge the Delta? How can our server farm run on cheap hydropower? Will the McMansions we built stay up long enough for us to retreat to a country where we’re immune from legal action? Models answer these questions. Sediments flow. Riverbanks erode. Mud settles. The physics of fluid dynamics is straightforward; plug in the data, print out the charts, and there you have it.

Photo credit: Brittany Hosea-Small

Wait a tick, though. The constants in those fluid equations come from observations of rivers (and such) that were usually far from pristine. Here in the USA a lot of the fieldwork that underlies the numbers in the textbooks happened in New England and here in the not-too-wild West, not surprisingly, since that’s where the researchers live. Viscosity calculations, for instance, depend on what Douglas calls “an empirical fudge” to determine how river flows move sediment downstream. Many of the watersheds where the pioneers of geology measured the current had been “engineered” before they arrived. Professor Douglas is noticing that those equations don’t work for the rivers in permafrost regions, where the human presence has been so light that the geological forces still rule. “My role is to come up with models” for the arctic that are accurate and useful at the medium scale for policymakers and the developers (and preservationists) that they oversee. She is helping develop the blossoming field of quantitative geology. “It’s a young field,” she says. “Plate tectonics is newer than quantum mechanics!” With basic questions still unanswered, geomorphology attracts investigators with broad curiosity who also have a sharp eye for careful data collection. 

Professor Douglas’s own curious eye was directed towards nature early on. Her parents were avid climbers and campers. When she told her PhD mom she wanted to be an academic or scientist and her mom warned that it would be a lot of time sitting at the bench, and a lot of ramen dinners, Douglas still thought “Sounds good to me.” Young Madison realized this wasn’t an either/or decision during a high school field trip to Maine. Geology equals physics and math and the outdoors! During a busy undergrad at MIT (fencing, flute, pubs, study abroad) she became enthralled with an EAPS professor who is one of our alumni, Taylor Perron (PhD ’06). He was her first tie to the academic family led by Bill Dietrich, the O.G. of Cal geomorphology. A field trip to Hawaii in 2016 removed any small doubts about her attraction: it was the science, not the lectern, that she wanted. At Caltech for graduate school, she joined the lab of Michael Lamb (PhD ’08). He turned Douglas on to arctic rivers and sediment transport and was notably strong in mentoring students about the managerial aspects of a career in academia. As a new member of our faculty, Douglas is thrilled to carry on the transmission of geomorphological wisdom and institutional know-how to her own students as they carry permafrost study forward. Bill Dietrich continues to model a career where Prof. Douglas joins in his advice to “take science very seriously but don’t take yourself too seriously.” Another great part of joining the Berkeley faculty? Douglas’s eyes light up when she says, “On my first day here I met and gabbed with Walter Alvarez!” Almost like the padawan that meets her masters and takes her place by their side. 

Our planet is changing at people-scale rates. The maps our grandparents used will not fix our grandchildren on the terrain. When Madison Douglas’s findings improve the accuracy of the models that tell us how quickly the arctic permafrost is melting and how soon the riverbanks will overflow, we will be on surer footing. We might change this slow-motion disaster movie into a tale of challenges met, and surmounted.