California’s critical role in shaping the 2024 election took center stage recently as experts gathered at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) Library for the "California and the 2024 Election" panel.
The event featured a presentation by IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo, who shared the latest statewide polling data gathered in collaboration with the Los Angeles Times. DiCamillo presented findings on the mood of California’s electorate and discussed how voter sentiment in the state is increasingly polarized along issues such as economic concerns, crime and immigration.
In his presentation, DiCamillo revealed that Californians are closely divided on several key issues, reflecting national trends of polarized voter sentiment. “The numbers are encouraging — greater than two-thirds of people are actually intending or are likely to vote in this election,” he said, explaining that likely turnout numbers can reflect how pivotal California’s electorate could be in shaping both statewide and national races.
The turnout data revealed that over two-thirds of likely voters planned to vote by mail or drop off ballots at drop boxes, a significant shift from past elections. The poll found that white voters; homeowners; those with higher education levels; and older Californians had higher turnout intentions, while Democrats were more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. DiCamillo noted that these shifts in voting methods also reflect the state's increasing polarization, with partisan preferences influencing how and when voters cast ballots.
In the presidential race, the latest poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former president Donald Trump by 57% to 35% in California, with no major shifts in support since she became the Democratic nominee. However, Harris is performing not as well as President Joe Biden did in 2020 among Republicans, Independents, Latinos and Asian Pacific Islanders, but she is faring better with white voters and women overall. Younger voters, who were critical for Biden, appear less enthusiastic about Harris compared to middle-aged and older voters.
The survey sampled 5,000 registered voters who were invited to participate in an email invitation, with responses collected from Oct. 22 to 29.
Additionally, crime remains a hot-button issue, highlighted by California's Proposition 36, which would allow offenders of theft and drug crimes to face felony charges and longer prison sentences. It also permits individuals with illegal drugs to be charged with treatment-mandated felonies instead of misdemeanors. This proposition has sparked divides along party lines, with Republicans generally supporting it and Democrats opposing it, fearing it could worsen prison overcrowding.
“We see broad support from nearly every demographic, with strong liberals being the one segment in opposition,” DiCamillo said.
Panelists Marissa Lagos of KQED; Laurel Rosenhall, politics editor at the LA Times; and Eric Schickler, UC Berkeley political science professor and IGS co-director, joined DiCamillo to analyze these findings. Moderated by Cristina Mora, UC Berkeley sociology professor and IGS co-director, their discussion offered valuable insights into the evolving voting patterns in California over recent years, highlighting the increasing number of young voters, many of whom are now part of third-generation immigrant families.
“If you're born here, or your parents were born here, you see yourself as American first. That's going to make you behave and think about things differently,” Lagos said.