By Kate Rix
Political Science professor Henry Brady is no newcomer to watching and analyzing electoral politics. With ongoing research projects into political participation in America, Estonia and Russia, Brady has made a career of studying campaigns and elections. This year’s presidential race, he says, is proving to be worth watching closely. It’s shaped up to be fast-moving, with primaries and caucuses scheduled nearly back-to-back across the country. The biggest stack-up will be on Super Tuesday. On February 5 California joins 23 other states including New York, Illinois and New Jersey in sending voters to the polls. Here in California the primary will take place a month earlier than usual.
Candidates have been preparing, and saving up, for Super Tuesday for a year or more. Campaigning in such large, diverse states means more targeted television ads, more telephone calls, and mass mailings. But it also means that California will matter more in picking the nominees than it has in a long time.
Arts and Ideas sat down with Professor Brady recently to get the lay of the land for California and some predictions for what may emerge out of the most important day of the 2008 presidential race.
Q: California hasn’t counted much in national elections since George McGovern faced off with incumbent Richard Nixon in 1972.
A: California counted in ‘84, when former Vice President Walter Mondale and Colorado Senator Gary Hart were going at it. In a June primary with five other states voting as well, Mondale lost in a close race to Gary Hart in California but he did well in the other states and barely won the nomination. California was not absolutely decisive, but it came close to ruining Mondale’s hopes.
Q: Does the fact that several states have moved their primaries up speed the election process?
A: Yes. We’ve had an acceleration of this process, because every state wants to go first. We saw it between Iowa and New Hampshire. There were only five days between those primaries, and that may be why the polls didn’t do a good job on the Democratic side. Things were moving too quickly. Media attention was focused on the people who did well in New Hampshire, but the average person has not been as attentive to the campaign as news reporters. They don’t tend to focus on a candidate until they’re in a frontrunner position. That’s when you tend to see more complete coverage of a candidate too. Immediately after Iowa we had a day or two of positive coverage of the winners, Obama and Huckabee, and then we started to see stories about whether Obama or Huckabee have enough experience to be President. I think that some of those votes Hillary got in the end in her surprise win in New Hampshire were people feeling that the process is moving too fast.
Q: With California’s primary set early, is there any chance the results here will dominate the campaign in a negative way?
A: I don’t think there’s any chance of California dominating. Remember we’re only 11 percent of the delegates on the Democratic side, and only 7 percent on the Republican side. On Super Tuesday we’ve got Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, lots of southern states, and some western states. It’s as close as we’ll get to a national primary. But California is still the biggest treasure trove of delegates.
Q: It must be entirely different to campaign in California than in, say, New Hampshire.
A: Oh yes. Here in California it’s wholesale politics, not retail politics. In smaller states candidates go to town meetings and many voters get to meet multiple candidates. Here, it’s all television advertising in major media markets. All the candidates will rely upon their money. We’ll be seeing lots of ads and phone calls. At this point the campaigns are trying to get their organizations in place, setting up precinct captains to help get out the vote. But here in California there are tens of thousands of precincts.
Q: How else are candidates preparing to tackle California?
A: Well Florida is a trial-run for Super Tuesday, big time. You have Southerners in the north and Northerners in the south, including retirees from big cities, Jews, African-Americans, Hispanics, Cubans, Haitians, you name it. Giuliani has to do well in Florida, he’s counting on it. And whether Huckabee stays in the race depends upon how he does in Florida.
Q: How exactly will California matter more this year?
A: Some of California’s issues will be on the forefront. We’re by and large very supportive of free trade, because most of our businesses benefit from it. We’re not protectionist like South Carolina, which is trying to save its textile mills, or Michigan with its auto industry. We’re also very pro-environment, much more so than almost any state in union. We led the nation with legislation that controls CO2 emissions, with a Republican governor in place. The third issue here is immigration, not so much up here but if you go down south to San Diego, Imperial, Riverside, or LA counties, people are concerned about immigration in different ways. Some who are pro-immigration, largely the Hispanic population, and others who are opposed to it, mostly non-Hispanic white people.
On the Democratic side, you’ll see a lot of talk about the economy linked to talk about the environment. They’ll be talking about California as an incubator for environmental industries. On the Republican side, we hear a lot about immigration. McCain and Romney are on opposite sides of that issue. Romney has taken a strong “We must control immigration. We must build a border fence” position. McCain supported Bush’s immigration bill, which was much more lenient, providing a path toward citizenship for illegal immigrants.
At the end of the day February 5, we’ll probably know who the Democratic nominee is and be down to no more than two guys on the Republican side.
Q: Any predictions?
A: I’d say Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic nomination, but that’s not for sure. Obama still has a fighting chance. The Republican side is a much harder call. I think Giuliani will get knocked out in Florida (but it will be a real donnybrook on the Republican side if he wins). Then it’ll be between Romney and McCain. Huckabee is so reliant on Christian conservatives and McCain winning South Carolina was a big deal. It was supposed to be Huckabee’s state but that subgroup couldn’t propel him to a win, and now he is barely hanging on and may very well be out after Florida.
UC Berkeley election experts are available to provide analysis and comment for reporters on campaign issues relating to campaigning and politics, the economy and taxes, education, the environment, health care, immigration, international relations, legal issues and voting technology. For more information see http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/01/10_experts.shtml.
